Are We Going to Face Erratic Weather Again?

ALOK K. SHRIVASTAVA

Nature is playing truant at present. After two or three spells of cool and wet days in March and early April this year, it has begun warming up again. Temperatures have risen from 38–40 degrees to 43 degrees in a matter of a week across most parts of North India, including Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.

The last three states are also facing, or have recently faced, a good deal of political heat owing to high-voltage drama during the Assembly elections. The blistering and infamous heat of April is currently being reported from Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry as well.

Air Quality Index

Even if the AQI is not being measured properly in Delhi and surrounding areas, it had remained normal or moderate for more than a month, particularly in March. However, it is now showing signs of a gradual increase. If one looks at the figures from the last eight days, from April 18 to April 25, only April 18 and 19 recorded moderate levels, but it began rising from April 20 onwards.

So far, an AQI of 313 (very poor category) on April 20 has been the highest of the season. After recording 233 and 232 on April 21 and 22 respectively, it again rose to 310 on April 23. It then fell to the poor category, recording 210 and 274 on April 24 and 25 respectively.

Maximum & Minimum Temperature

As far as maximum and minimum temperatures during the above-mentioned eight days of April are concerned, the former hovered between 40 and 43 degrees Celsius, while the latter ranged between 21 and 26 degrees Celsius. Temperatures are bound to rise further in the tough months of May and June ahead.

Very Severe Days to Come?

According to one scientific input, the summer of 2026 is likely to be very severe. It is not as though summers in 2024 and 2025 were mild. The impact of El Niño, or the strong ripple effect of warming currents generated in the Pacific Ocean, is felt up to the Indian Ocean and affects weather patterns across India. The effect of a possible “Super El Niño” may also be felt in 2026, which could impact agriculture in general and food grains in particular. Increased demand for electricity may also lead to higher energy costs.

Last but not least, according to inputs from a European weather tracking agency, the monsoon from both the Andaman Islands and the Kerala coast is likely to hit the shores fairly early. While this may bring relief to people, its impact on crops may not necessarily be beneficial.

Game Changer on April 17

After recording the season’s hottest day at 41 degrees Celsius on April 17, the national capital and nearby districts of adjoining states experienced heavy rain and thundershowers. As a result, day and evening temperatures dropped by 7 to 10 degrees Celsius in many areas. However, according to Skymet, temperatures were expected to rise again to 41–42 degrees, with isolated heatwave conditions.

Further forecasts suggest frequent changes in weather patterns, almost on a daily basis. Between April 25 and 26, heavy rains accompanied by strong winds have once again been predicted for the NCR and districts such as Meerut, Saharanpur, and Noida. At the same time, more heatwaves are very likely in many northern states. In contrast, hilly states like Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand may experience light to heavy rainfall.

To Conclude

It would be advisable to take adequate precautions in response to the changing weather patterns.