Element of Uncertainty: Both Weather and Trump?

ALOK K. SHRIVASTAVA

Someone aptly remarked—perhaps half in jest—while taking a ride in a fully crowded 975-passenger bogie of the Blue Line Metro: “Weather and Donald Trump are both very powerful. One cannot possibly be predicted, and the other can—but neither can be trusted.”

A few fellow travellers, those not glued to their cell phones, tended to agree as the sky outside grew overcast, hinting at an approaching drizzle or downpour. Inside the coach, a young member of Generation Z was engrossed in a social media post about Donald Trump’s vociferous campaign to secure the Nobel Peace Prize for his self-proclaimed “relentless efforts” in having “stopped eight wars” across the world.

Trump, however, seems to have forgotten that some of the conflicts he cited—such as the supposed one between Egypt and Ethiopia—never occurred, and that he had no role in arranging any ceasefire between India and Pakistan during the brief four-day skirmish in May this year.

Moreover, Trump blundered by including in his “credit list” events that took place after February 1, 2025—the deadline for submitting nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize. Endorsements in his favour from a country like Pakistan, known globally for harbouring terrorism, hardly add credibility to his case. Peace and terrorism, after all, are contradictions in terms.

The Onus on the Peace Prize Committee

The Nobel Peace Prize Committee in Oslo faces tremendous pressure each year from politicians lobbying for recognition. It is equally true that the Committee has sometimes acted hastily—Barack Obama, for instance, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize after just one year as U.S. President, without any notable peace achievement to his name. Many would argue that other nominees that year had far stronger credentials.

Mahatma Gandhi Ignored

It remains a deep regret for Indians that Mahatma Gandhi, the world’s undisputed apostle of peace, was never honoured with the Nobel Peace Prize despite his immense global impact. It is believed he was nominated once or twice, but never chosen—a historic oversight.

This year, the Committee received a record 300 nominations. It deserves credit for acting courageously and selecting a long-time fighter for free and fair elections and human rights in a country riddled with corruption and repression.

Ms. Maria Corina Machado

Maria Corina Machado of Venezuela is a deserving winner, even though she lost the presidential election as a candidate of the Vente Venezuela Party. Her leadership of the Atenea Foundation has been remarkable. She has become a leading figure in the pro-democracy movement in Venezuela and a powerful symbol of civilian courage across Latin America. Her Nobel Peace Prize honours her fight to uphold democratic values and challenge the long-entrenched dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro.

Speculation Amidst Uncertainty

There had been considerable speculation that the Peace Prize might go to Donald Trump, especially after he claimed credit for brokering a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas over Gaza just days before the Nobel announcement. But history and geopolitics tell us that a permanent ceasefire between these warring parties is impossible—only intermittent respites occur.

It Was Struggle All the Way

Despite living in hiding for over a year, Machado has emerged as a symbol of resilience. She has faced threats, arrests, and political persecution, yet continued her fight for democracy. Disqualified by the Maduro government from contesting elections, she stood her ground. In retaliation, Maduro even severed diplomatic ties with several countries, including Argentina.

To his credit, Donald Trump congratulated Machado after her win—though he continues to justify his own aggressive policies toward Venezuela under the guise of combating drug trafficking.

Uncertain Weather, Failing Predictions

For nearly three years, India has faced increasingly unpredictable weather—whether due to climate change, La Niña, sudden depressions over the Bay of Bengal, or cyclones in both the Bay and the Arabian Sea. These have caused recurring floods, flash floods, and landslides, year after year.

However, damage has been mitigated to some extent through the construction of cyclone shelters, improved early warning systems, and efficient rescue operations by NDRF and SDRF teams. First responders at the village and panchayat level have also been performing commendable service.

Rainfall Pattern and IMD Forecasts

The months of August and September this year were unusually wet, though September was warmer than in 2024. Heavy rains from September 30 to October 7 have already ushered in an early winter chill in North India.

The IMD predicts more rainy days even after the official retreat of the monsoon, with thunderstorms expected across North India, NCR, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. October 7 was, in fact, the coldest day of the month, with temperatures dropping by 10 degrees due to a western disturbance. Early snowfall has been recorded in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand—and even Sikkim, though the latter received little media attention.

Pollution levels are also expected to rise after October 14 due to crop burning, with slow wind speeds worsening the crisis. Despite repeated warnings, firecrackers during Diwali continue to cause up to 40% of NCR’s pollution.

Media’s Skewed Coverage

The media’s handling of weather-related crises remains uneven. Some tragedies—like the Kedarnath floods or Dharali incident—receive extensive coverage, but many disasters in the Northeast or South go virtually unnoticed.

For instance, the repeated closure of NH-10, Sikkim’s lifeline to Kalimpong, and the recent deaths of over 20 people in Darjeeling’s Jorebungalow area due to landslides, were barely covered by national outlets. The complete closure of the Pedong–Rhenock road in East Sikkim after heavy landslides also escaped national attention.

In contrast, even minor incidents in Delhi-NCR or select northern cities routinely dominate headlines. Such a lopsided media approach undermines the national interest and perpetuates regional neglect.