From Sri Lanka, B’desh to Nepal: Regime changes with more than meets the eye

NEW DELHI, (IANS): The developments over the past 24 hours in neighbouring Nepal are nothing but unprecedented. What was seen as a protest against the ban on social media led to the resignation of the Prime Minister and the President of the country.

The demonstrations largely led by Gen Z against corruption and nepotism turned violent, and 22 lives were lost. The Parliament was set on fire, and this triggered the resignations of Prime Minister K P Oli and President Ram Chandra Poudel.

In a nutshell, Nepal had its Bangladesh movement, and it is now becoming amply clear that there is something larger at play. Nepal watchers say that these protests are not just about a social media ban.

The region has seen regimes change overnight, and this has led to the suspicion that something larger may be at play. The Sri Lankan economic crisis led to a change in leadership. The top leadership in the island nation had to flee the country as the protests got violent.

In Pakistan, one got to see the democratically elected government of Imran Khan being ousted. However, this was largely the doing of the Pakistan army. Bangladesh too witnessed a similar development when a massive uprising by the students led to the ouster of a very strong leader, Sheikh Hasina.

There has been a pattern to these protests. These protests began on social media and, in no time, turned into protests against corruption. Like Hasina, Oli, and the Poudel are likely to leave the country. They have been advised by the top security brass to leave the country as there is grave danger to their lives.

With the situation still extremely volatile in the wake of a former Prime Minister’s wife being burnt to death by the protesters, the army is likely to take over the country. Former Nepal Prime Minister Jhalanath Khanal’s wife, Rabi Laxmi Chitrakar, passed away after sustaining injuries when their home in Dallu was set on fire amid the ongoing unrest. This appears to be a clear pattern to target the leadership and enforce regime change.

While the real reasons behind the protests are not clear, questions are being asked if there are some foreign elements at play. Officials say it is too early to tell, and one would have to analyse the situation further before making any comment.

However, there is a lot of traction about an external hand behind the unrest. Despite the government lifting the ban, the protests refused to die. This makes it clear that there was more than just a ban on social media that turned into such a huge issue.

The theories of a foreign hand at play in these protests are floating on social media. "Standard playbook seen dozens of times around the world – young brainwashed people burning down Parliament and residences of top politicians; leaders likely fleeing the country, etc. Now watch an American puppet sworn in as the new leader – just like in Bangladesh, Pakistan,” S L Kanthan, a geopolitical expert, said on his X handle.

Even after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, she had accused the US of orchestrating her removal from power. She said that she had not allowed the US to set up an airbase at St. Martin’s Island.

The events are quite similar to what one witnessed both in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in 2022 and 2024, respectively. Both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, like Nepal, witnessed sudden protests led by the youth, leading to the ransacking of the top leaders’ homes.

Looting, ransacking, and relaxing at the homes of the top leaders were witnessed both in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. While Sheikh Hasina fled to India, Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee to the Maldives. Oli is likely to fly out to Dubai.

If one takes the Nepal scenario, there have been tensions simmering since 2008. Power has rotated between Oli, Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda’, a five-time Prime Minister, and Sher Bahadur Deuba. However, there was one thing common among all these leaders, and that was that all of them had been accused of corruption. This has led to a lot of frustration among the youth who have complained of a lack of jobs and economic stagnation.

The situation has been quite fragile, and hence it would not have been hard to engineer something of this magnitude. Just a few weeks before the app ban, a nepo kid campaign had begun in which the lavish lifestyles of the children of Nepalese politicians were questioned.

Nepal has been very unstable and has seen 14 governments, mostly in a coalition, in the last 17 years. This had led to many stating that making Nepal a secular republic had failed, and the monarchy should be restored.