Grim Challenges to Maritime Trade Are Rising

ALOK K. SHRIVASTAVA

According to a source, India is the world's second-largest supplier of seafarers, accounting for 12.2% of global seafaring manpower. Ranking behind the Philippines, it is ahead of China and Russia. Hence, each time an unusual incident happens on the high seas, an Indian seafarer is likely to be impacted.

The majority of 3,11,936 Indian seafarers are facing enhanced security threats as professional and experienced pirates of Somalia and diehard Houthis of Yemen have unleashed a reign of terror on the one hand, while almost daily restrictions and attacks are being faced in the Strait of Hormuz region (SoH) on the other.

On August 20, 2026, two vessels carrying twenty-two Indian nationals were hijacked in two separate incidents off the coasts of Yemen, near the Gulf of Aden (M.T. Sibu 1), and Somalia (M.V. Lutuf). The vessels were flying the flags of Eritrea and Cameroon, respectively.
Crew members are reported to be safe so far, while the shipowners are working hard for their release.

Twenty seafarers were on board Sibu 1, sixteen of them Indians. Of the ten seafarers on board Lutuf, six are reported to be Indians. Six armed persons are reported to have taken control of the vessel Sibu 1 and diverted it to Somalia. On the other hand, eight armed persons took control of the vessel Lutuf.

As the pirates seem to have switched off the transponders, both vessels were not transmitting their location details. It is supposed to be a standard trick in this gory profession nowadays.

Apart from these two acts of piracy, Indian seafarers have also had to bear the brunt of the ongoing conflict in West Asia, with a few of them losing their lives and many getting trapped in the crossfire on a regular basis. In some cases, they had to be rescued by the military or navy of nations friendly to India.

RED SEA, BAB EL-MANDEB, GULF OF ADEN

It is one of the world's most important maritime corridors, linking Europe, the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa. Ten per cent of global sea trade between Europe and Asia passes through it. It is continuously facing threats from the sea pirates of Somalia as well as the Houthis of Yemen. Weak governments in Somalia for decades have limited the country's ability to exercise control over coastal areas, which abound in pirates and sea robbers. So, the booming business of ransom gets perpetuated. Armed groups, upon collecting advance intelligence, attack and hijack ships for ransom. The latest guns, along with Rocket-Propelled Grenades (RPGs), are also used to take hostages.

Houthis have also been reported to be attacking Red Sea vessels, including those passing through the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb (SoBEM) and the Gulf of Aden, since October 2023. Vessels not surrendering to their unreasonable demands have to re-route their journeys around the Cape of Good Hope, which not only makes the journey longer but also adds substantially to operational costs. They have to face the wrath of Somali pirates as well.

In the last week of July 2026, the Houthis announced a maritime embargo on Saudi ports and began attacking their vessels thereafter.

Restricted Movement of Vessels Through SoH

According to Government of India sources, six to nine vessels are still stuck in the SoH region, carrying between 148 and 198 Indian seafarers. It may be noted that prior to February 28, 130 vessels would pass through SoH on a daily basis. But due to unilateral blockades, active military conflict, fear of sea mines, frequent attacks on vessels and high war-risk insurance costs, the number has come down substantially, even when they carry crucial items such as crude oil, LPG and LNG.

According to another source, the number of such vessels was 234 on nineteen days of August. Iranians permitted 83 of them through their area, three followed the Oman coast route, while in respect of 148 of them, no confirmed route could be ascertained.

It has been further learnt that vessels that follow 'non-permitted' routes switch off their transponders and thus arrive in the safe zone. Ship-to-ship transfers are also carried out by vessels from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.

TIFF WITH UAE

In the meanwhile, fifteen vessels of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) have been attacked since the beginning of the war in the Middle East. One person has been killed and twenty persons have been injured. To ensure free access, the UAE is, therefore, planning to build an oil pipeline project to bypass SoH.

Iran, too, is now talking with Oman about making arrangements for the future management of SoH. But it is bound to be opposed by the USA.

WHO CONTROLS SoH?

The Strait lies in the territorial waters of Iran in the north and Oman in the south. While, due to the presence of many islands and high mountains on its side, Iran has exercised control over the area for a long time, it manages the area well and has been in a position to enforce a blockade through threats, underground mines, artificial caves and inspections to regulate and direct shipping traffic.

Iran, incidentally, allows safe passage to only five countries: Russia, China, Iraq, India and Pakistan. There are five other nations having vetted or transit access. It may be noted that the stand with regard to India was not transparent in the initial days of the Middle East conflict. Presumably, India had developed a soft corner for Israel, and some of India's positions were not to the liking of Iran.

SOUTH SIDE IS DOMAIN OF USA

On the southern side of SoH lies the strategically located Musandam Peninsula of Oman, with narrow shipping lanes connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.

Oil keeps flowing through this shipping corridor under the active protection of the U.S. military and Navy. The U.S. Navy escorts oil vessels safely to the open sea and inspects the safe return of empty tankers as well.

The USA and Iran continue to enforce their respective blockades along this key shipping lane. Iran not only wants a blockade; it wants to charge ships for smooth passage. Thus, the use of SoH as an economic coercion weapon goes on.

Neither the UNO nor the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is taking any stand. It is felt that the failure of diplomacy in resolving the deadlock in the Middle East may multiply the risks to maritime traffic.

POOR NATIONS ALREADY SUFFERING

Concerns for global trade have already become prominent. High energy, fertiliser and transport costs are already affecting the price of food grains, ultimately impacting the cost of living, especially in poor and vulnerable countries such as Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, Kenya, Mozambique, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc.

CONCLUSION

Somali pirates and Houthi rebels may undoubtedly be threats to maritime trade, but it is SoH that continues to be a high-tension point since February 28, 2026. In addition to disruption, regular attacks on tankers and vessels do take place. Select groups of tankers attempt transit, but under tense conditions.

A prolonged disruption of ships through both SoH and SoBEM would increase the miseries of poor and vulnerable economies. The Suez Canal route may also be threatened, as an attack on an Egyptian port has already happened. In Somalia, too, the semblance of a unified government setup is ruled out in the near future.

All said and done, Iran still retains significant control over maritime traffic in the SoH zone. We have noted that, as against the passage of 130 vessels a day prior to February 28, only 236 vessels passed through this zone in nineteen days of August.

Further, the price of crude oil, which was USD 66 per barrel on February 28, had risen to USD 100 per barrel by July 23.

Even in such a fluid situation, China, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan and India remain dependent on SoH. If the Strait is not fully opened, it can have an even more adverse impact on Indian seafarers and the economy. One should not forget that 40% of India's crude oil comes through SoH and 60% of LNG also passes through it. Indian P.O.L. prices have shot up and may rise further because the Central Government, under pressure from the U.S. President, is no longer interested in buying relatively cheap Russian crude oil.

Further, India has to import 80 to 85% of its crude oil requirement, and its buffer stocks cannot go beyond 40 to 45 days.

A serious thought in national interest is called for.

(Views are personal)