The Price of War

Before the world celebrates the framework agreement between Iran and the United States, it is worth remembering that peace remains a promise, not a reality. The deal may have halted a dangerous conflict that threatened to engulf West Asia, but it has not resolved the underlying disputes that sparked the crisis in the first place.

For India, the stakes could not be higher. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent shockwaves through the global economy because nearly a fifth of the world's oil and gas passes through this narrow waterway. India imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements, much of it from the Gulf. Every disruption translates into higher fuel prices, increased transportation costs and greater inflationary pressure on ordinary households. For millions already struggling with rising living expenses, distant conflicts quickly become domestic hardships.

The human dimension is equally significant. Millions of Indians live and work across the Gulf region, sending home billions of dollars in remittances every year. Thousands more serve aboard commercial vessels navigating these waters. Any escalation threatens not only economic interests but also the safety and livelihoods of Indian citizens.

Yet the agreement itself raises uncomfortable questions. After months of warfare, thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in losses, the principal achievement appears to be the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—a situation that existed before the conflict began. Far from weakening Iran, the crisis may have demonstrated its ability to disrupt global energy supplies and acquire greater leverage in future negotiations. The ceasefire is fragile and could collapse with a single miscalculation.

India therefore has every reason to support diplomatic engagement and regional stability. New Delhi cannot afford to view this as somebody else's war. Our energy security, economic stability and the welfare of millions of Indians are directly linked to peace in West Asia.

A pause in fighting is welcome. But unless diplomacy succeeds where military force failed, the world may simply be witnessing an interval between crises rather than the beginning of lasting peace.